Dr. Oscars Or How I Stopped Worrying About the New Actor Oscars Rules

The Academy recently announced some new rule changes to some of the categories. Most of them seem reasonable and sensible, like the foreign feature category and how they can compete within the Oscars, how the Best Original Song is implemented into the movie, and the best new rule, no AI. That last rule seems like such a victory, with heartless, greedy executives wanting to use generative AI to replace artists, despite the fact genAI has been nothing but a drain on real life resources. It hasn’t actually done anything to make or contribute to art outside of a surefire way of separating the mediocre hacks and grifters from the actual talented artists. That being said, there was one rule change that worried everyone. When they talked about changes made to the Best Actor/Actress categories, they allowed for multiple performances from the same actor to qualify for the individual acting awards. That change could mean, depending on how good their year was, one actor could take up two or more spots if their performances were considered as awards-worthy for more than one movie where they were either Best Actor or Best Supporting. 

Everyone is understandably worried because of previous controversies about nominations, whether it be the To Leslie fiasco, Oscars so White, and the fact that the Academy voters themselves don’t even watch everything. With a voting body that is this flawed and susceptible to being easily manipulated by outside rule-breaking FYC campaigns, this new rule would seem to set certain actors up to have better chances of winning and/or hogging the nominations in a voting body with already baked-in problems. All it would take, for example, is for Leonardo DiCaprio to be in two acclaimed movies to take two spots if he was the lead in both. Some actors, like Zendaya, Robert Pattinson,  and Anne Hathaway, have multiple movies coming out in 2026 that could lead to them taking up the spotlight at the Oscars or other award bodies if they choose to follow the same rules. There are understandable reasons to be wary about this new rule change. 

All in all, though, I am personally not too worried. The skeleton of the Oscars voting body is already rickety and bound to break at some point. This new rule change sounds scary, and I could be 100% wrong about not regarding it as a serious threat to the voting process. However, I feel, with the crucial unpredictability of how award season voters act, which, arguably, points to the flawed human nature of it all, time will show that this new rule isn’t as scary as it could be. 

First, until critics and filmgoers actually see a movie, no one, not even the executives or filmmakers themselves, will know how the response to or success of a film will go. There are simply too many variables to keep track of regarding how folks will subjectively respond to a movie. It could be critically loved, but die at the box office due to bad release windows, marketing faux pas, or being released during weeks with heavy competition. It could be critically despised, but due to word of mouth, clever marketing, or curiosity to see as many movies as possible, people will go see the movie. It could be an overall great movie, but because of the time of release with what’s happening in the world, folks may like it, but then not want to see it because it’s something they don’t want to see at that point in time. These movies could range from last year’s The Long Walk due to the depressing nature of the movie, or something like The Apprentice due to who the film is about. It can be tragic when a movie that critics love doesn’t find an audience, or when a film that was put through the meat grinder of executive meddling to be lesser than what it was intended to be, somehow finds an audience. Maybe some folks will want to see something familiar based on an IP or preexisting franchise, or maybe critics and folks will want to see something fun, maximalist, and creative in a slew of Hollywood safe bets. 

Now, when it comes to the award season, which begins around August/September, a few months after the festival season begins, a whole different formula must be put into the equation. Most folks who make movies that go through the festival circuit want to tell certain stories, and, while I don’t fully believe in them intentionally making something only for the purpose to vacuum up awards, movies that are maybe intended to win at least one Oscar sometimes don’t gain traction. Last year’s Cannes Film Festival line-up that went all the way through to the Academy was all over the place. No Other Choice was one of the most popular of the Cannes Film Festival darlings, but gained no award traction whereas Neon, which bought up or brought over a majority of the awards winners essentially cannibalized their chances to let other films like Sinners, One Battle After Another, Guillermo Del Toro’s Frankenstein, and to an extent, Marty Supreme, slip by films such as Sirat, The Secret Agent, It Was Just An Accident, and others. That’s not even taking into consideration the individual critical and audience response to those movies. One thing to keep an eye out for is that a movie’s reception by a festival crowd can be wildly different from a normal film-going crowd. Sure, a win here or there at certain festivals could be the determining factor if a movie gets nominated at the Oscars or not, but even if the movie did make it all the way through to Oscar night, does that really mean anything? Distributors can go through the award and festival circuit only to find their films do nothing once Oscar night happens. Why? Because of the human element of either knowing or not knowing how the voters will pick and choose which film deserves which award, or should even be nominated for those five spots or ten if they are Best Picture nominated. Momentum fizzles out all the time, and not every film has the same amount of hype and acclaim to keep it going from the halfway point of the year to the end. 

So, with the chaotic nature of seasonal runs and the unpredictability of the voting body to take into account, where do we go from here with this new rule? Could an actor truly take up more than one of the five spots in the Best or Supporting Actor? Not really. Not everyone has the same release schedule and sometimes some actors will end up in more projects than others, but not every project is aiming to intentionally be awards-worthy. Zendaya, for instance, is one of the most popular young actresses around, but she isn’t always a loved actress in the voting circles. Her four films this year include The Drama, The Odyssey, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, and Dune 3. The Drama’s mixed-to-general response won’t carry the film to award season despite the viral chatter about The Drama’s controversial turn in which she is involved. Awards voters of any award show or group in general do not give the live-action Spider-Man movies any awards unless it’s a possible nomination for technical elements. The Dune franchise is very popular, but a lot of its wins from the Oscars tend to be based more on technical criteria and not really based on any acting performances despite its stacked cast. The Odyssey is probably going to be the biggest award season hopeful, but it could also not contribute to as many acting nominations for her depending on how the movie turns out, and how voters, critics, and the larger filmgoing audience regard the overall cast.

Anne Hathaway has five films for now coming out or are out this year, which includes Mother Mary, The Devil Wears Prada 2, The Odyssey, Verity, and The End of Oak Street. Let’s use the same logic we used for Zendaya’s release line-up. Mother Mary has been reviewed decently well, but it’s a film that would also have to compete with Best Actress possibilities with her co-star Michaela Coel. Even then, would its popularity survive to the beginning of award season? The End of Oak Street is by the director of It Follows, but will it pick up any award season steam that most genre films struggle to attain? Will the voting body like an erotic thriller like Verity? Even with the powerhouse cast that includes other award-season faves like Meryl Streep and Emily Blunt, will The Devil Wears Prada 2 pick up any noms like the first film did? Where does that lead Hathaway for any potential actress noms? That leaves us with Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey. Let’s also make it clear that actors like Zendaya and Anne Hathaway are just foundational examples, because when you consider their costars in the movies, that consideration leads us to multiple other actors like Robert Pattinson being in five different movies this year, including The Drama, The Odyssey, and Dune 3 whom he shares screen time with Zendaya and Anne Hathaway. Could his presence lead to any shake up during award season on top of his other two films Primetime and Here Comes the Flood?  Other actors this year like Sanrah Huller have multiple performances in Project Hail Mary and Digger. Popstars-turned actors like Charli XCX are in a slew of releases from this year like The Moment, Faces of Death, The Gallerist, and I Want Your Sex. Not saying Charli XCX has any chance, but still. 

There’s a reason why some actors get so big that they only want or are able to just do one big movie a year that gets them awards, but not every actor is that good or that lucky to get such an opportunity. Even if actors somehow got five or more films out in one year released in theaters or streaming, how many of those films are going to be big enough hits financially and critically to carry them over to the finish line to award season? There are too many directions this year can go with movies and what people want, or how they will react to them, that could make this new Oscar rule for the acting category even more unwieldy than it already was. Even after the adventure through the world of film festivals and awards, nothing is ever fully set in stone. Maybe an actor could have an amazing year to grab more of the spots, or maybe nothing will actually change. It’s truly too early to talk about these issues before Cannes happens. Once Cannes happens and a few other festival receptions happen, then we can talk about how damaging this new rule change is.